Post by SalTal on Mar 18, 2012 2:35:39 GMT -4
I need to regroup where I’m thinking of going at the start of this, so give me a minute.
Kaji investigates CJ and CJ turns up mafia.
Atken steals an item from him (more on that below) and he gets a syringe.
That’s where we’re at.
Now, my way of thinking really needs to be broken down in terms of role. I’m not role-baiting, I’m just putting it into terms that (hopefully) everyone understands as to how I get to my vote on CJ and not anyone else.
1) The Naive Cop
Kaji reads Rebel and town. CJ reads Rebel as town. I’m more likely to believe that Rebel is the naive cop who got a town reading on Level-One and got a town reading on himself when/if he investigated himself, thus letting him think that his readings are completely legit because he’s coming up as town.
Jeff and I were throwing it out there to see if CJ was the naive cop, but it’s unlikely that there are two. CJ is claiming that he has got town readings on me, Kaji, Bailey, Rebel. We can explain this as a failed conversion attempt in trying to convert the arsonist.
2) The Psychiatrist
Admittedly a psychiatrist is generally used to convert a serial killer, and a fireman is used to stop an arsonist. I’m thinking that there is a mafia psychiatrist and, maybe, a town fireman (or maybe nothing for the town). A town fireman could have converted the arsonist to be a town and a psychiatrist who could have converted the arsonist to be a scum.
The problem with this theory (which I admittedly threw out there) is at the Night 3/Day 4/Night 4 part of the timeline:
Day 1: Nothing
Night 1: CJ visits Bailey, gets failed conversion.
Day 2:
Night 2: CJ visits Rebel, gets a failed conversion.
Day 3
Night 3: CJ visits Kaji, gets a failed conversion.
Day 4: JamesV (arsonist) is lynched.
Night 4: CJ visits Sally, gets a failed conversion.
Why would CJ try to convert me Night 4 knowing that the arsonist was killed? If anyone has any information that CJ visited them after Night 4, then now would be a really good time to bring it forward.
But the write-ups of the game indicate that it’s a psychiatrist. I quote from these:
Jack Kelso: His name…is Ira Hogeboom. We served in the same company during the war. Last I’d heard, he was having some problems since coming home…I don’t know what the Hell he’d be doing trying to turn us into an ashy graveyard.
and, from that same write up:
Ira Hogeboom: The doctor…Dr. Harlan Fontain…I’ve fulfilled my place…in this world. I’ve atoned…and now I’m free…
Then, from Day 5:
Dr. Harlan Fontaine: I’m afraid I cannot offer my psychiatric care at such an hour in the night.
and, from the same write-up:
Dr. Harlan Fontaine: Elsa, please lower that gun. I do believe that you have simply overdosed on your anti-anxiety medication-
Then, from Night 5:
Dr. Harlan Fontaine: You are very perceptive Elsa. Allow me to ease your mind with this...
and, from the same write up:
Dr. Harlan Fontaine: We are building a future of rehabilitation, one that would end our country’s dependence on drugs.
Also, if you look at the title of the image that Noble posted in his most recent update, it’s: dr-harlan-fontaine.png. The image is, clearly, about psychiatry and the name gives us a clue that it’s about Fontaine.
I should clear this up: CJ doesn't leave notes. I went back and re-read what I was told, and it was definitely not a note that alerted me to your visit. Which leads me to...
3) The Tracker
CJ can’t explain why the people he visits are told that he does. He may try to claim that there is a watcher in the game, but why would a watcher continually watch CJ from Night 1? I would believe someone if they claimed a modified watcher role where they can also tell the target because I know that my role is modified to an extent.
Overall, I don’t believe in any claim CJ might make about being tracked. I’m inclined to think that CJ’s attempts to convert are a gamble: If he’s successful, he gets an extra scum. If he’s unsuccessful, then the target will be notified of his visit.
There might be a tracker who has consistently followed CJ each round and has passed on the information to all of us that you have visited, but hasn't been able to tell us what you've done. And you've not been forthcoming about what it is you've been finding on people.
Rebel and Bailey need to confirm or deny whether they were told that CJ visited them. And then anyone else with knowledge that CJ visited will need to come forward.
4) The Framer
CJ is claiming that perhaps a framer has framed him on the last night phase (when Atken found the syringe). Our bus driver (Blade) is dead. So you would have to work on the assumption that there is another scum (aside from the good Dr. Fontaine) who has the ability to actually frame people through the use of items or that they have some sort of bus driver/swapper that switched you, CJ, with them last night and Atken got the syringe from them thinking it’s you.
However, that works on the notion that there’s a fourth scum. Our list of scum, from the write ups and confirmed through the kills, are:
Leland Monroe - Michael Callahan
Dr. Harlan Fontaine -
Roy Earle (converted town by Leland Monroe) - Level-One
Four seemed like a good number of scum originally, but with the arsonist:
Ira Hogeboom - JamesV
It seems less likely that there would be a fourth scum because Noble probably didn’t think the town would be as successful as they have been - especially in finding the arsonist. Also, maybe Callahan could have converted another one down the track, but he died too early to boost their numbers past 3.
So I don’t think that there’s a fourth scum out there that is a framer, or akin to a framer.
However, if you turn out scum and then the game is still going, we’ll have to figure out who is a guilty-looking person. And I already have an idea.
5) The Usurper
There’s a doctor leading the whole thing now, so I’m wondering if CJ’s role has also been slapped with usurper. Why?
Elsa Lichtman: These are bank records. I recognize some of the names on here…including yours. Mr. Monroe was the kingpin, but he didn’t provide all the footsoldiers. They came from…Oh Lord.
Dr. Harlan Fontaine: Has the full vision of the Suburban Redevelopment Fund become apparent to you? We are building a future of rehabilitation, one that would end our country’s dependence on drugs. Mr. Monroe trusted me to do this personally. If you’ll flip to the back…
He never voted for Callahan, not over the two days. I would have thought a usurper would have made the excuse that it’s inevitable and leveled a vote on him to get cover and to ensure that he got the Godfather role.
I’m less confident on the idea that CJ is a usurper, but it’s fuel to the fire. If he was/is, he is now the godfather and would likely get an innocent reading since, well, Callahan got lynched on Day 3.
6) Everyone Else (minus one)
Jeff is a paranoid cop.
Rebel is a naive cop.
Sally is something town.
Atken is some sort of mirrorer.
Kaji is a cop
Farquhar is town (a watcher or a role where he can spy on the action of someone and what it is)
Tmarv is town (likely a cop)
7) Bailey
Bailey, I’m going to assume you’re town and have been laying low after nearly getting your head bitten off the first few days and this is a new experience for you.
However, if this game is still going after CJ is lynched and it turns out there’s one more scum, I’m coming after you.
Kaji investigates CJ and CJ turns up mafia.
Atken steals an item from him (more on that below) and he gets a syringe.
That’s where we’re at.
Now, my way of thinking really needs to be broken down in terms of role. I’m not role-baiting, I’m just putting it into terms that (hopefully) everyone understands as to how I get to my vote on CJ and not anyone else.
1) The Naive Cop
Kaji reads Rebel and town. CJ reads Rebel as town. I’m more likely to believe that Rebel is the naive cop who got a town reading on Level-One and got a town reading on himself when/if he investigated himself, thus letting him think that his readings are completely legit because he’s coming up as town.
Jeff and I were throwing it out there to see if CJ was the naive cop, but it’s unlikely that there are two. CJ is claiming that he has got town readings on me, Kaji, Bailey, Rebel. We can explain this as a failed conversion attempt in trying to convert the arsonist.
2) The Psychiatrist
Admittedly a psychiatrist is generally used to convert a serial killer, and a fireman is used to stop an arsonist. I’m thinking that there is a mafia psychiatrist and, maybe, a town fireman (or maybe nothing for the town). A town fireman could have converted the arsonist to be a town and a psychiatrist who could have converted the arsonist to be a scum.
The problem with this theory (which I admittedly threw out there) is at the Night 3/Day 4/Night 4 part of the timeline:
Day 1: Nothing
Night 1: CJ visits Bailey, gets failed conversion.
Day 2:
Night 2: CJ visits Rebel, gets a failed conversion.
Day 3
Night 3: CJ visits Kaji, gets a failed conversion.
Day 4: JamesV (arsonist) is lynched.
Night 4: CJ visits Sally, gets a failed conversion.
Why would CJ try to convert me Night 4 knowing that the arsonist was killed? If anyone has any information that CJ visited them after Night 4, then now would be a really good time to bring it forward.
But the write-ups of the game indicate that it’s a psychiatrist. I quote from these:
and, from that same write up:
Then, from Day 5:
and, from the same write-up:
Then, from Night 5:
and, from the same write up:
Also, if you look at the title of the image that Noble posted in his most recent update, it’s: dr-harlan-fontaine.png. The image is, clearly, about psychiatry and the name gives us a clue that it’s about Fontaine.
I should clear this up: CJ doesn't leave notes. I went back and re-read what I was told, and it was definitely not a note that alerted me to your visit. Which leads me to...
3) The Tracker
CJ can’t explain why the people he visits are told that he does. He may try to claim that there is a watcher in the game, but why would a watcher continually watch CJ from Night 1? I would believe someone if they claimed a modified watcher role where they can also tell the target because I know that my role is modified to an extent.
Overall, I don’t believe in any claim CJ might make about being tracked. I’m inclined to think that CJ’s attempts to convert are a gamble: If he’s successful, he gets an extra scum. If he’s unsuccessful, then the target will be notified of his visit.
There might be a tracker who has consistently followed CJ each round and has passed on the information to all of us that you have visited, but hasn't been able to tell us what you've done. And you've not been forthcoming about what it is you've been finding on people.
Rebel and Bailey need to confirm or deny whether they were told that CJ visited them. And then anyone else with knowledge that CJ visited will need to come forward.
4) The Framer
CJ is claiming that perhaps a framer has framed him on the last night phase (when Atken found the syringe). Our bus driver (Blade) is dead. So you would have to work on the assumption that there is another scum (aside from the good Dr. Fontaine) who has the ability to actually frame people through the use of items or that they have some sort of bus driver/swapper that switched you, CJ, with them last night and Atken got the syringe from them thinking it’s you.
However, that works on the notion that there’s a fourth scum. Our list of scum, from the write ups and confirmed through the kills, are:
Leland Monroe - Michael Callahan
Dr. Harlan Fontaine -
Roy Earle (converted town by Leland Monroe) - Level-One
Four seemed like a good number of scum originally, but with the arsonist:
Ira Hogeboom - JamesV
It seems less likely that there would be a fourth scum because Noble probably didn’t think the town would be as successful as they have been - especially in finding the arsonist. Also, maybe Callahan could have converted another one down the track, but he died too early to boost their numbers past 3.
So I don’t think that there’s a fourth scum out there that is a framer, or akin to a framer.
However, if you turn out scum and then the game is still going, we’ll have to figure out who is a guilty-looking person. And I already have an idea.
5) The Usurper
There’s a doctor leading the whole thing now, so I’m wondering if CJ’s role has also been slapped with usurper. Why?
Dr. Harlan Fontaine: Has the full vision of the Suburban Redevelopment Fund become apparent to you? We are building a future of rehabilitation, one that would end our country’s dependence on drugs. Mr. Monroe trusted me to do this personally. If you’ll flip to the back…
He never voted for Callahan, not over the two days. I would have thought a usurper would have made the excuse that it’s inevitable and leveled a vote on him to get cover and to ensure that he got the Godfather role.
I’m less confident on the idea that CJ is a usurper, but it’s fuel to the fire. If he was/is, he is now the godfather and would likely get an innocent reading since, well, Callahan got lynched on Day 3.
6) Everyone Else (minus one)
Jeff is a paranoid cop.
Rebel is a naive cop.
Sally is something town.
Atken is some sort of mirrorer.
Kaji is a cop
Farquhar is town (a watcher or a role where he can spy on the action of someone and what it is)
Tmarv is town (likely a cop)
7) Bailey
Bailey, I’m going to assume you’re town and have been laying low after nearly getting your head bitten off the first few days and this is a new experience for you.
However, if this game is still going after CJ is lynched and it turns out there’s one more scum, I’m coming after you.
