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Post by Kurt on May 9, 2012 10:22:26 GMT -4
Sorry, one more post...I just had a theory about this. This is probably going to lead to some angry posts voting me out, but here we go!
You mentioned that you know for sure Callahan saved L1, a player he clearly voted against Day 2. L1 has no idea why he would do it, and I'm not sure Callahan has commented on it, but it leads me to believe that Callahan might be Mafia (he is on the list!), and L1 is the Godfather.
That's why he would pop up town to you Sally. That's why Callahan would use a one-time role to save him. And honestly...I think someone tried to kill him last night (the write-up), but failed because the Godfather could be bulletproof. That puts Venom as either a one-shot Vig, or the last cultist. Call it a wild theory, but maybe it'll get examined a bit more after I'm dead:
So, list:
Mafia - L1 - Callahan - ?
Cult: - Possibly Venom
That's my theory. I expect all the people I've named will lynch me throw votes on me, and I've already acknowledged this; but I accept my likely death today and just want to help any way I can.
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Post by Michael Jennings on May 9, 2012 10:41:10 GMT -4
After reading through all of this I think Noble is in the red mafia hence why I am voting for him. Was suspecting this yesterday but the info we have no confirms my suspicions.
Vote: Noble
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Post by Jake Venom on May 9, 2012 10:47:50 GMT -4
This posts makes absolutely no sense, and paints you in a horrible light. How do we know L1 connects with the decoy? It's speculative reasoning based on nothing. L1 did not receive the votes necessary for a lynch on Day 2 either. As far as band-wagoning, you voted for Knuckles AFTER L1 did, further on his wagon. Not focusing on Jeff's info today seems odd, as it should be an issue for today. Moreover, yes, L1 did visit Sally Night 1, but this post starkly contrasts how you opened Day 3. Twist the "interesting bit of information" bit all you'd like, but you're clearly leaning on me with this post. I'm just failing to understand your jump in thought here. First, let me begin by saying that the quotes were acting weird. I think the extra [/quote] tag you had in your post made the quote I tried to make weird. So, I clipped everything but the relevant information. Second, let me say that L1 did, in fact, have the votes to lynch. It has been stated that the person with the highest amount of votes at days end will be lynch. That was Level One, he wasn't lynched. Obviously he either has someone saving him (which would've been very coincidental this early in the game) or he has a power that won't allow him to die. (Maybe the Schwartz?) Then, we get to the point that Skroob had an attempt on his life. Yet again, there is a saving grace. We have evidence already that L1 was going to be lynched, but wasn't. Now we have evidence that Skroob had an attempt on his life during the night, and survived. Why? What is happening that is preventing L1 from dying and what is happening that is preventing Skroob from dying? The write-up makes it seem like a decoy power, not someone saving him. Also, I did, in fact, visit L1 during the night phase, to see what he was up to. I, of course, can't say what my role is. But, there's a reason that I was creeping along around L1. I wanted to see if things were going to add up like I thought they would have added up, and guess what? They did. That's what I have placed a vote on L1. That's why I'm not going to bandwagon Kurt Noble. Trust me, it would be wise to target L1. Also, Sally, what information do you have regarding why L1 didn't die? It would be fantastic to hear right now.
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Post by T-Marv on May 9, 2012 10:52:20 GMT -4
Vote Count:
Noble - 4 (level one, sally, CJ Gates, James V) Level One - 1 (Jake Venom)
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
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Post by Kurt on May 9, 2012 11:09:00 GMT -4
Sorry for the quoting fail, ha.
Can you elaborate please? I realize I'm asking you to stick your neck out, but this is important. You can share your info, just don't say your role. Use vague terms if you have to.
I'll understand if you don't though. I'll be dead within the next few hours, so I'm just trying to get as clear of a picture as possible.
Also, Rebel, I REALLY need you to respond to my first question. Trust me, I'm going to give the town one last piece of information before I die.
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Post by Jake Venom on May 9, 2012 11:25:58 GMT -4
Sorry for the quoting fail, ha. Can you elaborate please? I realize I'm asking you to stick your neck out, but this is important. You can share your info, just don't say your role. Use vague terms if you have to. I'll understand if you don't though. I'll be dead within the next few hours, so I'm just trying to get as clear of a picture as possible. Also, Rebel, I REALLY need you to respond to my first question. Trust me, I'm going to give the town one last piece of information before I die. I have a role that allows me to visit people at night, and subsequently see what role they are. I'm 95% sure that, not only is L1 mafia, but he is the GodFather.
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Post by Kurt on May 9, 2012 13:06:20 GMT -4
Fair enough Venom.
Unfortunately, there's just nothing that leads me to believe L1 is town, if you put it all together:
- Visits Sally night 1, who dies. - Claims to have informative power role, while simultaneously sharing nothing across 3 nights. - Is saved by Callahan, who voted for him. Doesn't add up. - Refused to role-claim when near death, instead throwing out the vague hint about his role that never materializes. - Insists I should have cleared him as he misconstrues what a watcher actually does.
Vote: Level-One
And here's my last bit of information to help the town. Wanted to wait for Rebel, but I have no idea when he'll emerge, so I'll show my hand instead.
So Rebel, you're a tracker, right? That would make you Lone Starr, correct? Because of my role PM, I know that Lone Starr is a tracker, and based off your posts, I have every reason to believe you're the town tracker. This will make sense after my lynch. I do believe I've just stated your role/character, which will help you/the town after I'm dead.
That's all I've got ladies and gents.
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Post by T-Marv on May 9, 2012 13:14:51 GMT -4
Vote Count:
Noble - 4 (level one, sally, CJ Gates, James V) Level One - 2(Jake Venom, Noble)
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
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Post by Level-Two on May 9, 2012 13:18:51 GMT -4
Oh, really? Then why don't you tell us who one other person in the game is?
95% sure? In other words - your excuse when I flip town, right?
Anyways, I need more time to respond to some of the other posts if need be cause I am not home right now.
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Post by Michael Callahan on May 9, 2012 14:13:45 GMT -4
I'm torn here.
On the one hand I know that Venom is almost certainly lying about his role on account of the fact that it would mean we have practically identical roles and while I have concrete evidence (yesterdays calling of Knuckles role) to back me up he hasn't contributed anything to this game which might suggest that he is what he says. Meanwhile, he's making accusations at L1 for doing something he did as if he forgot he did the same thing (and in that, I think he threw a scum mate under the bus).
However. We have to work with what little concrete we have and that's Jeff's list of five. The majority seem to think that lynching Noble is the right foot forward and given that I know I'm town and I'm 99% certain that CJ is town too through his behaviours it seems like Noble has to go. His visiting of Sally on the right night is far too much of a coincidence.
From all the arguments presented he's the most logical to be the scum player.
The question that's really on my mind right now though Sally is this. What did your power do? Why is nobody asking this? Was it already answered? You activated a power on Kurt, there's been no recognition of it (which is something I got fucked for when I did mine. How unfair?) And why now that you've done it are you throwing him under the bus for lynch?
Something is really not adding up here.
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Post by Jules on May 9, 2012 14:34:20 GMT -4
Apologies for my absence. This is a non-helpful check in post, but I promise as soon as I've caught up with everything that has been said in the last 24 hours I will post.
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Post by Kurt on May 9, 2012 15:28:25 GMT -4
I'm torn here. However. We have to work with what little concrete we have and that's Jeff's list of five. The majority seem to think that lynching Noble is the right foot forward and given that I know I'm town and I'm 99% certain that CJ is town too through his behaviours it seems like Noble has to go. His visiting of Sally on the right night is far too much of a coincidence. Just out of curiosity, what makes you certain CJ is town? I do believe Sally has cleared him...but she's cleared me too. I believe he's town more than you, just wondering about this. I don't think anyone's asking about it because it doesn't conflict with the way this game has gone. Sally's been gathering information, and her one-shot allowed her to continue doing so. Perhaps she'll elaborate now that you asked. Your one-shot, however, interfered with the flow of the game, and doesn't add up. You saved L1 after voting for him, which makes absolutely no sense to me. It was Day 2, L1 had made no specific mention of a role that would be helpful to the town, and his death clearly would have put the game in the scenario it's in today: lynch me; so, I'm going to ask you... Why did you save L1??
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Post by Kurt on May 9, 2012 15:32:11 GMT -4
EBWOP
And I don't consider Sally voting me throwing me under the bus. In her situation, and probably for the overall game, it's the best move. It's going to give the most information about this entire game, and ultimately, I believe it will lead to both yours and L1's lynches when I flip watcher (or tracker, if Tmarv decides to use my original role PM that was meant to confuse me).
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Post by President Jeff on May 9, 2012 15:40:52 GMT -4
Let me grab a bite to eat and I'll share my info. Was gonna do it last night, but no one had posted anything by the time I went to bed, which is what I was waiting for, but don't worry, I'll have something posted very soon.
PS. I don't think Noble is scum. I could be wrong, but from my list, I think someone else is
Maybe I missed this somewhere, but I have a question
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Post by President Jeff on May 9, 2012 15:41:40 GMT -4
oops, hit send before I finished typing ;D
Maybe I missed this somewhere, but I have a question for Callahan. Why is it that the day Level One was getting Lynched, Your post, stopped the Lynch
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Post by President Jeff on May 9, 2012 16:59:44 GMT -4
Alright, time to share some info. How was I 100% sure that AC was right on Knuckles. Its because I know for a fact what role AC used on Knuckles that night. Someone gave him a 1 shot ability that night. What other role AC has, I have no idea. I know the role he was given was a Rolecop role. It didn’t tell me who he used it on, or if he even used it, but based on what AC was saying, it was Knuckles
Last night, I used my role on AC again, and again, AC was given another 1 shot role. Who he used it on, I have no idea. I know what role he was given, but I don’t want to say it, cause I’m not a 100% sure that he even used that role in the question I asked him and it can be help full to the town if used right, or if he used the role that Tmarv gave him (again, not sure if he even has a night role besides the ones being given to him), or that So there’s someone out there, handing out roles.
But with that said, 3 guys we need to look at. Noble, CJ and Callahan. If you guys are following the game, you guys should have been smart enough to check these 3 guys out. So if we’re gonna Lynch, it needs to be one of those 3 since one of those 3 is scum
Now a couple people are saying that I could be scum cause I pulled a few names out of my ass. Those weren’t the exact works, but that’s the jist of it. Those 5 names, came from the 5 people who we’re trying to Lynch Level One. Don’t believe me, go check it. I won the first Trivia contest which allowed me to find out how many scum/third parties was on a band waggon. And the fact that Knuckles was on that list and he did indeed turn up third party, should be enough to clear me here as town.
And based on Sally’s info and what she posted. I’ve been wondering just why Callahans post on Day 2 stopped Level One’s Lynch, and What Sally says makes sense to me. This whole time, I had a gut feeling on Callahan, but I had nothing to put a case on him. The fact that Callahan stopped Level One’s Lynch, makes me believe that Level One and Callahan are scum. Why else would Callahans post stop the Lynch and stop the day. Callahan probably voted for Level One so the heat would get taken off of him. AC could be the third guy, I don’t know, all I know is that someone is feeding him roles. James V could be scum, cause he randomly came out and cleared Callhans which seems odd to me. And I don’t buy it. James is such an experienced player that he could easily lie.
So for now
Vote: Callahan
I had a feeling on Knuckles and I was right. Let see if this feeling carries over.
If Callahan comes up town, then Kurt is our guy, but I don’t see enough evidence on Kurt right now to accuse him of Scum. Yes he visited Sally the night she died, but so did Level One.
I almost made a joke when Sally died that Level One Killed her, cause it seems every game that those two go at it, and Level One took her out. Which is another reason why I think Noble is town and Level One could be scum.
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Post by Level-Two on May 9, 2012 17:47:11 GMT -4
I just went back and looked and you obviously are onto something HOWEVER there's only one problem and that is Callahan's name isn't on that list.
Terry Marvin may need to clarify this. Something isn't adding up.
However, I still know Jake Venom is lying. So right now it's either Kurt or in a worst case scenario him.
A more in-depth reply on everything that has been thrown out there today coming later. I need to finish up this roleplay.
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Post by Michael Callahan on May 9, 2012 17:48:04 GMT -4
Steady on chaps. Let's hang fire a sec.
To answer Kurt's question, the reason I covered L1's ass is because there was nowhere near enough information for me to be able to consciously agree that a lynch on L1 would've been a definite foot forward. My few experiences of APW Mafia tend to find that when L1 is town he usually has a good role and is very effective at scum-hunting and I didn't feel comfortable knowing that I could potentially help the town by delaying his death and doing some research myself before we ended up making a big mistake.
I flubbed it up with my "mock vote" so to speak to go along with public opinion, not rock the boat and try and disguise the fact I'd done something which would lead to a situation like now where I'm unpopular for saving him. It also had the advantage of making me a less likely candidate for NK's which I am pretty sure I now am.
A further reason why I protected L1 was because as well as the fact he's beneficial to the town when he is town, I was unnerved by how people like Knuckles (amongst others) were pushing for his lynch so feverently that I felt like he was the victim of a nasty stitch-up. He's had my alarm bells flaring since day 1 and was convinced that if I could end the day, get some positive dirt on L1 I would then be able to turn it to the town's advantage by accusing Knuckles of deliberately trying to get a pro-town player killed, clear L1's name and start moving in a positive direction for the town.
That's where you come in Jeff. Y'see, after T-Marv came in and blew the whistle on me ending the day you posted during the night time with your bolshy claim about the five people and their being one scummer and one third party amongst the ranks. Now I don't know if that's legit evidence or if you lucked out but combined with my suspicions on Knuckles already I instead of opting to try and clear L1 went straight for the source and investigated him myself.
This of course lead to me concluding like I suspected that he was in fact, Third Party, Pizza the Hutt 2, Godfather and along with A.C. Smith was able to successfully lead the lynch that now puts in a 7 V 4 situation.
Given that you're accusing a man who's done nothing but help the town so far, I'm starting to think that maybe you made that bit of information up, got lucky with drawing my attention and in fact ALL OF US (including Noble) are actually town while you subbed yours or your scum partners name out for one of us to create all this hysteria.
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Post by President Jeff on May 9, 2012 17:54:41 GMT -4
I'm not sure if I'm allowed to say why I have your name on my list, but either way, your still on it and I'm not buying your guys story.
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Post by Kurt on May 9, 2012 18:52:00 GMT -4
I'm not sure if I'm allowed to say why I have your name on my list, but either way, your still on it and I'm not buying your guys story. As long as you're not role-claiming or character claiming, I don't see why not. If you know his role, it isn't against the rules to say what it is. I'm 100% certain I know Rebel's role and character, and have already stated them, so you should be fine.
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Post by Jules on May 9, 2012 18:55:16 GMT -4
I'm not going to revisit everything that I've just read, I'm tired and I don't have the energy to think through every single permeation that has been advanced. What I do feel though is that there is enough evidence to go forward with a lynch on either Level-One or Kurt Noble; however there seems to be an equal amount of evidence not to lynch either of them. I understand the argument and reasoning behind lynch one and it reveals the alignment of the other, but it seems to me if we hit the wrong target then, yeah, we have a sure-fire lynch the next day, but it gives the one that gets away another night of terror. Callahan looks a bit sceptical to me with this whole saving L-1 thing, but given that Callahan has at least come through for the town in this game I'm willing to give him a reprieve this time on the basis that whoever has the investigative roles out there examines his ass tonight. That said and done, something has been bugging me since early in this day phase. I'll admit I've kinda lurked but only because I wanted to see how the play panned out. Here is the post that first grabbed my attention. Hm. Interesting. Here's what I'm seeing so far. Level One had enough votes to be lynched. When the write up came, we found out that he wasn't. Maybe he was saved, or maybe something else was going on. Now, today, we see a write-up where Skroob should have been killed, but apparently he used a decoy to save himself. I think this is some of the most telling evidence, combined with the fact that Level One was quick to pile onto the Knuckles bandwagon when that lynch train had momentum, and that he visited Sally the same that she just happened to die... Well, that raises some huge red flags. Vote: Level OneI was struck by how aggressive a play this was especially given the 'evidence' it is based on is pretty ropey. Anyway, there has been a bit of back and forth on this, and the resolution in my eyes is that what has gone on since has confounded most of the 'telling evidence' Venom is citing here. 1. The reliance on the write-up is dubious. 2. The connection between L-1 and Skroob is based on Venom's claimed night action. I have a role that allows me to visit people at night, and subsequently see what role they are. I'm 95% sure that, not only is L1 mafia, but he is the GodFather. 3. The supposition that L-1 is Skroob is based on the fact that L-1 was not lynch and the assumption he was saved, which we now know to be the result of Callahan. Again this fact undermines what Venom has supposed. 4. We also know that Venom and L-1 were on the Knuckles lynch, but somehow Venom is cleared of suspicion and L-1 isn't. No explanation has been given why, and I doubt one ever will be. All of this rests on 2. which is seems to suggest a strikingly similar role to the one Callahan is hinting at. Of course, Callahan could be bullshitting, but given that he has come through for the town, if I have to choose, I'm going with him. In addition Venom only came out with a role that implicated L-1 after Kurt had said he’d seen Venom visit L-1. The question that I just can’t answer is: why withhold that info from the first post when he went so hard after L-1? Remember he wasn’t raising a suspicion, he voted and surely no evidence would be greater than the role-based info Venom claimed to have, but instead he favoured some lightweight and pretty transparent arguments based on the write-up. To summarise, Level-One, Noble, Callahan - there could be and probably is anti-town amongst them, but Jake Venom I feel certain is an anti-town player and he has to go. Vote: Jake Venom
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Post by President Jeff on May 9, 2012 19:07:35 GMT -4
I'm not sure if I'm allowed to say why I have your name on my list, but either way, your still on it and I'm not buying your guys story. As long as you're not role-claiming or character claiming, I don't see why not. If you know his role, it isn't against the rules to say what it is. I'm 100% certain I know Rebel's role and character, and have already stated them, so you should be fine. I don't know Callahans Character or his role. And I got confirmation from Tmarv that I can't reveal why I have Callahan on my list. I'm telling you guys, Level One and Callahan are scum. I really don't believe that Kurt is scum. Its not looking like anyone wants to Lynch Callahan even though he's playing everyone right now. So I'm willing to change my vote to Level Ones. I'll do whatever you guy want if it means keeping kurt and getting rid of either Level One or Callahan
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Post by A.C. Smith on May 9, 2012 19:14:31 GMT -4
A few quick impressions here.
I find it very odd that, after all the talk about Noble earlier on, that we now may be heading towards a no-lynch. There's a Noble camp, an L-1 camp, a Callahan camp, and now potentially a Venom camp. That would be an ideal situation for the scum in this game, and I'd wager that at least one of these latest lynch movements was started as a distraction.
I get the rationale behind the 'lynch Player X and it'll tell us who Players Y and Z are' movement. And honestly, while we have a little "evidence" on a number of the players, none of the potential lynch targets are sure things. I'm still nowhere near convinced enough to cast a vote, but if I had to rank all of the potential targets from most likely to be scum to least likely, here's how I'd rank.
- L-1 - Noble - Venom - Callahan
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Post by A.C. Smith on May 9, 2012 19:15:11 GMT -4
EBWOP
Can we please get an accurate vote tally before we go much further?
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Post by T-Marv on May 9, 2012 19:19:47 GMT -4
Noble - 4 (level one, sally, CJ Gates, James V) Level One - 2 (Jake Venom, Noble) Jake Venom - 1(Jules) Callahan - 1 (President Jeff)
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
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Post by A.C. Smith on May 9, 2012 19:21:17 GMT -4
Thanks, T-Marv!
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Post by Michael Jennings on May 9, 2012 21:26:44 GMT -4
Also, as a question to throw out...Callahan was cleared by James...TO JAMES: Is your clear from a night action or just from your perception/how things worked with Knuckles? Forgot to answer this. It's from a night action and with what happened there's no way he could be in either mafia.
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Post by Jake Venom on May 9, 2012 21:41:23 GMT -4
*snip* 1. The reliance on the write-up is dubious. 2. The connection between L-1 and Skroob is based on Venom's claimed night action. I have a role that allows me to visit people at night, and subsequently see what role they are. I'm 95% sure that, not only is L1 mafia, but he is the GodFather. 3. The supposition that L-1 is Skroob is based on the fact that L-1 was not lynch and the assumption he was saved, which we now know to be the result of Callahan. Again this fact undermines what Venom has supposed. 4. We also know that Venom and L-1 were on the Knuckles lynch, but somehow Venom is cleared of suspicion and L-1 isn't. No explanation has been given why, and I doubt one ever will be. All of this rests on 2. which is seems to suggest a strikingly similar role to the one Callahan is hinting at. Of course, Callahan could be bullshitting, but given that he has come through for the town, if I have to choose, I'm going with him. In addition Venom only came out with a role that implicated L-1 after Kurt had said he’d seen Venom visit L-1. The question that I just can’t answer is: why withhold that info from the first post when he went so hard after L-1? Remember he wasn’t raising a suspicion, he voted and surely no evidence would be greater than the role-based info Venom claimed to have, but instead he favoured some lightweight and pretty transparent arguments based on the write-up. To summarise, Level-One, Noble, Callahan - there could be and probably is anti-town amongst them, but Jake Venom I feel certain is an anti-town player and he has to go. To the quoted text, I have to say this. I wanted to make sure that I was absolutely, positively in the know. I didn't want to just start throwing those things out during the other days, which would easily paint a target on my back for the mafia. Town aligned role-spotters, watchers, trackers, all of those are an instant target for mafia, and that's something I was trying to avoid. Obviously I should have given out that information initially at the start of this day, but, I didn't. That's my fault. I made an aggressive play out of the gate because of what I had found out during the previous night. Why else would I be one of the first ones out of the gate, after being patient with my voting in the past? I'm a cautious player. Aggressive votes out of the gate are definitely not my style. But when I'm sure of something, and this I am sure of, I decided it was time to make the right play. Now, as for the "multiple" roles. Of course there will be multiple roles. As Jeff has pointed out, a few times now, Callahan is scum. I would say that the town and mafia would have similar roles, so that the sides aren't too lop-sided. Is it that hard to believe that the mafia has a tracker, watcher, spotter, etc, as well as the town? Back to Callahan being scum: I'm almost certain he is. He's saved L1, he's been on Jeff's list since near the beginning. But, I'm more worried about L1, who I know is the Godfather. The Godfather is the key role here. We take him out, and we cut off the mafia's access to the Schwartz (in whatever form it may, or may not, exist in this game).
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Post by Kurt on May 9, 2012 21:48:41 GMT -4
Question Jake:
Who else have you visited? I believe that there are multiple roles of the same origin in this game (the write-ups make obvious note of 'stunt double' characters), so I'm willing to entertain your rolecop idea if you can elaborate on it further.
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Post by Jake Venom on May 9, 2012 22:08:01 GMT -4
Question Jake: Who else have you visited? I believe that there are multiple roles of the same origin in this game (the write-ups make obvious note of 'stunt double' characters), so I'm willing to entertain your rolecop idea if you can elaborate on it further. The first night I seen Knuckles, but nothing happened. He never was anywhere, which, obviously could be construed as suspicious or could be construed as town. (Later, when the evidence came out that he was most definitely scum, I found it to be suspicious, and a definite indicator that he was probably Pizza the Hutt, who, according to the write-ups, has had Vinnie doing his work.) Last night, I went to see L1. I wanted to see what was really going on, especially after the whole big ordeal with him getting lynched and then not lynched. What I got back was interesting. I do have to admit that it's possible I was seeing the Skroob decoy, etc. But, either way, I think the connection is too obvious that he's he Godfather. By adding up the evidence that everyone has presented including yourself Kurt, and Jeff, along with what I seen during my nightly visit, I have to say that it's, as I said before 95% (exactly why I didn't say that I was 100% sure, because there are some factors there) sure that L1 is the Godfather.
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