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Post by Level-Two on Jan 8, 2013 2:05:42 GMT -4
Smh, I just scrolled the page after I wrote that and saw Bryan's one liner. I must've missed at first because of his underwhelming lack of a signature.
Unvote: Bryan Deas
Sorry, Deas! Back to the drawing board.
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Post by KJE on Jan 8, 2013 2:32:33 GMT -4
Damn, really aint getting anywhere. It's good to know that everyone is active at least.
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Post by Michael Jennings on Jan 8, 2013 2:34:16 GMT -4
Well, in the idea that it's rare then I'd look towards Takagi being blocked. Although, with the write-up saying that, seems odd that Havok would come right out and say he was blocked. This I agree with. I don't think Havok is Takagi and was likely blocked by the town roleblocker. I think that the purple is Cult. I think Ellis is a recruiter so there are three factions and a serial killer since I think McClaine. No one is really standing out right now but when I have tomorrow going to look through the thread and see if anyone stands out. |
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Post by Kurt on Jan 8, 2013 14:27:02 GMT -4
Okay, I'm healthy enough to the point that I can deliberate. Observations: I don't mean to use this to clear Havok, because it doesn't...but he's doing his day-two-word-vomit-approach. I'm less-inclined to believe he's Mafia when he's all over the place, but perhaps he's a good investigation target for night 2; let's clear our "spotlight" people first. There's no need for a small issue to drag out and be a distraction. Here are the two posts most getting my attention: I still would like to know WHY I was roleblocked. I would have thought it is obvious. Someone either thinks your scum, or the scum RBer blocked you for some reason. While I accept RBing on night 1 is always a bit random, the mafia would at least know who is not mafia, and unless all the 'power players' are scum I'd question why they would specifically target you when people like L-1, Tel, Kurt, James, possibly even myself would be the plausible scum targets night 1. Not saying scum didn't target you, just pointing out it would be odd if they did. Back that up one second. You need to modify this statement: People like you and JamesV, L1, et.c are typical night 1 targets, not just scum targets. L1 rrequently gets investigated first; JamesV has been watched the first night a few times. If you consider Havok a low-priority target, that's exactly what the Mafia is thinking...and that's why he'd be targeted. Case: Who here really thought to protect Gooch night 1? Would anyone protect/switch/etc. him over L1? Anyone at all? Hitting unsuspecting targets is a great Mafia strategy (we did this in Justified Mafia) because you become hard to track or be watched. So, it shouldn't be used to poke a hole in Havok's defense. Second: Smh, I just scrolled the page after I wrote that and saw Bryan's one liner. I must've missed at first because of his underwhelming lack of a signature. Unvote: Bryan DeasSorry, Deas! Back to the drawing board. Don't really like the rationale for this vote. I mean, I get it: Pick off people who might not help us, that way we're only playing with active players. If he's town, no harm done; if he's Mafia, good for us. It's a no-risk strategy, but it's akin to the same lines of "Let's lynch Brandon Harvey to start this game." Doesn't sit well with me. Also means you didn't read the multiple posts talking about the dead silencer theory afterwards, which is kind of troublesome. All I got for now. |
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Post by Level-Two on Jan 8, 2013 18:06:25 GMT -4
Actually the vote made perfect sense - IF my scenerio was accurate, Kurt. Admitedly, I was multi tasking & skimming over the posts late last night before posting which is entirely my fault. I have been busy (xbox is taking over my life) and my head isnt where it needs to be right now as far as this game is concerned.
The lynch I was advocating for five minutes is nothing like lynching harvey for the hell of it - or even the pointless Yarmouth lynch that occured in the last game.
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Post by The Soul Of Philly on Jan 8, 2013 18:35:45 GMT -4
My thinking was the same as Kurt's, solely because it smelled like the Yarmouth lynch
It would have prevented more thoughts and theories from being made. That said I'm not making much of it as I understood where he was coming from it was just that I was disagreeing with it.
So right now I'm think Chaz isn't mafia since he came out saying he was roleblocked after we said a roleblock is possible. That's really all I got since, if the write up isn't flavor, the scum isn't goin to come out with it. Any ideas or theories?
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Post by Jules on Jan 8, 2013 18:41:49 GMT -4
Okay, I'm healthy enough to the point that I can deliberate. Observations: I don't mean to use this to clear Havok, because it doesn't...but he's doing his day-two-word-vomit-approach. I'm less-inclined to believe he's Mafia when he's all over the place, but perhaps he's a good investigation target for night 2; let's clear our "spotlight" people first. There's no need for a small issue to drag out and be a distraction. Here are the two posts most getting my attention: I would have thought it is obvious. Someone either thinks your scum, or the scum RBer blocked you for some reason. While I accept RBing on night 1 is always a bit random, the mafia would at least know who is not mafia, and unless all the 'power players' are scum I'd question why they would specifically target you when people like L-1, Tel, Kurt, James, possibly even myself would be the plausible scum targets night 1. Not saying scum didn't target you, just pointing out it would be odd if they did. Back that up one second. You need to modify this statement: People like you and JamesV, L1, et.c are typical night 1 targets, not just scum targets. L1 rrequently gets investigated first; JamesV has been watched the first night a few times. If you consider Havok a low-priority target, that's exactly what the Mafia is thinking...and that's why he'd be targeted. Case: Who here really thought to protect Gooch night 1? Would anyone protect/switch/etc. him over L1? Anyone at all? Hitting unsuspecting targets is a great Mafia strategy (we did this in Justified Mafia) because you become hard to track or be watched. So, it shouldn't be used to poke a hole in Havok's defense. Second: Smh, I just scrolled the page after I wrote that and saw Bryan's one liner. I must've missed at first because of his underwhelming lack of a signature. Unvote: Bryan DeasSorry, Deas! Back to the drawing board. Don't really like the rationale for this vote. I mean, I get it: Pick off people who might not help us, that way we're only playing with active players. If he's town, no harm done; if he's Mafia, good for us. It's a no-risk strategy, but it's akin to the same lines of "Let's lynch Brandon Harvey to start this game." Doesn't sit well with me. Also means you didn't read the multiple posts talking about the dead silencer theory afterwards, which is kind of troublesome. All I got for now. Didn't know I was poking holes, just making an observation. But you're right Kurt, you've provided a plausible theory about the mafia's motivations. |
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Post by T-Marv on Jan 8, 2013 20:17:11 GMT -4
I'm not thinking Chaz is cleared exactly, though not high up on our suspect list. I'm always weary of the In-actives... not necessarily for good reason, just seems like theres a contingent of people who are commonly inactive as scum.
Losing the watcher sucks....bad.
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Reya Serra
Ring Crew
"The Herald of Holiness" Reya Serra
Posts: 41 
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Post by Reya Serra on Jan 8, 2013 21:47:37 GMT -4
Havok being roleblocked doesn't necessarily mean he's cleared, but it doesn't make much sense to me why he would come out with that information if he was scum so I'm more inclined to believe that he is town for now.
As for Level One, it might have just been a boo boo or it could have been him as scum jumping the gun on Deas (who is an easy target - It's Deas, after all). L-1 is a veteran player here from what I understand. Not doubting that he would have a scum slip up, but it was most likely just a boo boo from my point of view. I could totally be wrong though. After all, I haven't played mafia with 95% of you before now.
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Post by T-Marv on Jan 8, 2013 22:26:17 GMT -4
Havok being roleblocked doesn't necessarily mean he's cleared, but it doesn't make much sense to me why he would come out with that information if he was scum so I'm more inclined to believe that he is town for now. As for Level One, it might have just been a boo boo or it could have been him as scum jumping the gun on Deas (who is an easy target - It's Deas, after all). L-1 is a veteran player here from what I understand. Not doubting that he would have a scum slip up, but it was most likely just a boo boo from my point of view. I could totally be wrong though. After all, I haven't played mafia with 95% of you before now. WOOO HOOO! I'm the 5% |
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Reya Serra
Ring Crew
"The Herald of Holiness" Reya Serra
Posts: 41
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Post by Reya Serra on Jan 8, 2013 22:55:24 GMT -4
Havok being roleblocked doesn't necessarily mean he's cleared, but it doesn't make much sense to me why he would come out with that information if he was scum so I'm more inclined to believe that he is town for now. As for Level One, it might have just been a boo boo or it could have been him as scum jumping the gun on Deas (who is an easy target - It's Deas, after all). L-1 is a veteran player here from what I understand. Not doubting that he would have a scum slip up, but it was most likely just a boo boo from my point of view. I could totally be wrong though. After all, I haven't played mafia with 95% of you before now. WOOO HOOO! I'm the 5% You're like...1 of that 5% lol James would be the other 4%  |
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Post by T-Marv on Jan 8, 2013 23:58:51 GMT -4
Somehow that doesn't shock me.
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Post by Nathaniel Havok on Jan 9, 2013 3:40:34 GMT -4
Everybody has spoken at least once in the day phase, nice to see the activity.
I only see L1's approach as a "strategy play". He's a vet, I don't find it scummy. Also, I understand how he could miss the post, I've done it before.
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Post by Nathaniel Havok on Jan 9, 2013 3:41:46 GMT -4
As for Level One, it might have just been a boo boo or it could have been him as scum jumping the gun on Deas (who is an easy target - It's Deas, after all). L-1 is a veteran player here from what I understand. Not doubting that he would have a scum slip up, but it was most likely just a boo boo from my point of view. I could totally be wrong though. After all, I haven't played mafia with 95% of you before now. EBWOP Was responding to this. Should have quoted it. |
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Post by T-Marv on Jan 9, 2013 10:04:00 GMT -4
Okay folks, we pretty much have nothing but picking at Level One's little mistake which is getting us even further in the hole.
The SK picked off somebody that nobody would think to watch Night one (even though he was the watcher.) or protect Night One. That has been stated already, so let's break down what that really means.
Is this SK Experienced? Definitely! But more than that he's Experienced in APW games. Unless it was a total fluke, Reya Serra and Deas wouldn't know which players are big time and which players are not, they wouldn't know which ones were likely targets for protection this early in the game. It doesn't completely rule them out, but I'd think Reya or Deas would go after somebody they've played with before. But I could be wrong.
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Post by Mark Mania on Jan 9, 2013 10:27:51 GMT -4
I'm not quick to call the scum experienced after one night. Very easily could've been a fluke.
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Pepsi
Semi-Main Eventer
Posts: 605
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Post by Pepsi on Jan 9, 2013 10:47:28 GMT -4
Okay folks, we pretty much have nothing but picking at Level One's little mistake which is getting us even further in the hole. The SK picked off somebody that nobody would think to watch Night one (even though he was the watcher.) or protect Night One. That has been stated already, so let's break down what that really means. Is this SK Experienced? Definitely! But more than that he's Experienced in APW games. Unless it was a total fluke, Reya Serra and Deas wouldn't know which players are big time and which players are not, they wouldn't know which ones were likely targets for protection this early in the game. It doesn't completely rule them out, but I'd think Reya or Deas would go after somebody they've played with before. But I could be wrong. I would agree that the SK is likely more experienced. There were clearly people who would have been bigger targets than Gooch. By picking Gooch the SK ensured it's target would not be protected. I doubt it was just a random choice. |
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Post by Kurt on Jan 9, 2013 14:24:16 GMT -4
Eh, I'm always a little wary when people say things like "The Mafia is definitely experienced!" or "So and so is definitely experienced!"...after one kill. One good move doesn't mean it's an experienced player any more than a bad move makes xxx unexperienced.
If they'd have killed L1, we'd be going on about how they picked off a major player...making them experienced.
I don't mean to be a buzzkill, it's just that these discussions are always meaningless; we hypothesize based on the tiniest strain of information, and we don't really reach any sort of genuine conclusion until *after* the game is over.
We're going to a no-lynch; it's unavoidable. But, given the tidbits people have said here and there, I (and hopefully you!) have formed opinions about quite a few players in the game, and can proceed from there.
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Pepsi
Semi-Main Eventer
Posts: 605
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Post by Pepsi on Jan 9, 2013 14:41:59 GMT -4
Eh, I'm always a little wary when people say things like "The Mafia is definitely experienced!" or "So and so is definitely experienced!"...after one kill. One good move doesn't mean it's an experienced player any more than a bad move makes xxx unexperienced. If they'd have killed L1, we'd be going on about how they picked off a major player...making them experienced. I don't mean to be a buzzkill, it's just that these discussions are always meaningless; we hypothesize based on the tiniest strain of information, and we don't really reach any sort of genuine conclusion until *after* the game is over. We're going to a no-lynch; it's unavoidable. But, given the tidbits people have said here and there, I (and hopefully you!) have formed opinions about quite a few players in the game, and can proceed from there. Fair enough, and you're right a lot of this is just pointless speculation, but with so little info to work off of I don't think it hurts to exhaust all avenues as few as there may be. I Agree that we are clearly headed towards a no lynch day, nor would I advocate a lynch with no real evidence, but sometimes pointless discussion can lead to necessary info. Whether the serial killer is experienced or not is mostly guess work at this point, but discussing the SK's actions could help us to understand there strategy going forward (ie. are they targeting lesser threats, did they target lesser threats on day 1 to make us think that is the overall plan and get our focus off of the obvious choices, is it just random choices). All of these possibilities are pure speculation, but a collaborative commentary on it can help long term. Reaching a genuine conclusion is not necessarily the goal, seeing where other people stand, and trying to draw out information would be useful at any stage. |
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Post by Level-Two on Jan 9, 2013 15:00:56 GMT -4
Agreed, Kurt. This kill doesn't really tell me anything other than the fact whoever is the Serial Killer has at least a basic understanding of how the game works. You can't read into it too much because a clueless, new or inexperienced player is just as likely to pick their targets almost at random.
If anything these discussions tend to provide cover for - in this case - the Serial Killer anyways. It doesn't need to be a conscious effort, either. The town goes out and uses their roles on the ''experienced'' players allowing whoever isn't under that umbrella to skate on by.
One observation I have made about the Gooch kill is that it's too safe. I'm more likely than some others to receive protection - true but on paper there were other bigger names out there an SK could have gambled with for a larger net gain so to speak.
Seems like the SK was specifically worried about Gooch targeting them early on.
Also... has anyone played MAFIA with Bryan Deas before? I believe he and Reya are the two new players here. If the theory is the SK wanted to make the safest kill - it still wasn't Buckson Gooch.
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Post by T-Marv on Jan 9, 2013 15:35:52 GMT -4
I've played with Deas before.
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Post by T-Marv on Jan 9, 2013 15:46:25 GMT -4
you're right... I've been dwelling a lot on this experianced/inexperianced thing. But only because I have no idea where else to look right now. Nothing is standing out about anyone and I am really grasping for straws here.
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Post by Speede on Jan 9, 2013 15:55:39 GMT -4
Alright, so I'd like to apologize for that. My computer's been behaving very poorly lately, and from my point of view, it showed me as having double-posted my last message. Rather than leave the message up twice for no particular reason, i went to delete one, and then it showed me the deleted post. I managed to backspace (Thank god for Opera) and recover the exact post, and this is what i'd posted, before T-Marv posted his most recent...
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Post by T-Marv on Jan 9, 2013 16:04:59 GMT -4
Alright, so I'd like to apologize for that. My computer's been behaving very poorly lately, and from my point of view, it showed me as having double-posted my last message. Rather than leave the message up twice for no particular reason, i went to delete one, and then it showed me the deleted post. I managed to backspace (Thank god for Opera) and recover the exact post, and this is what i'd posted, before T-Marv posted his most recent... That's the second time you've wen't fishing Speede, and that nearly got me lynched in the VIW mafia game. Yes, I used my night action. I'm not going to say on who or what I did though cause it's fucking day 2 and I'm not going to out myself right now. I assume you're cornering me cause I'm an "experienced" player, but you too (as testified by Knuckles during one game) are also an experienced player. So if you've got something to say, spit it out. |
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Post by Speede on Jan 9, 2013 18:51:07 GMT -4
That's the second time you've wen't fishing Speede, and that nearly got me lynched in the VIW mafia game. Yes, I used my night action. I'm not going to say on who or what I did though cause it's fucking day 2 and I'm not going to out myself right now. I assume you're cornering me cause I'm an "experienced" player, but you too (as testified by Knuckles during one game) are also an experienced player. So if you've got something to say, spit it out. Calm down, Terry. I'm just throwing the thought out there that nobody has been able to clear anybody yet, and perhaps the town isn't being led by an actual towns-person. Don't worry, bro; I'm not going to say anymore about it. I trust you on that and I will until given evidence otherwise. And like I said, my night action for night one didn't give me anything to present to the rest of the town; I'll see what I can get night two for us. |
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Post by T-Marv on Jan 9, 2013 19:14:54 GMT -4
Wasn't trying to be excitable, just found it weird that you asked the person who "silenced" the one scum guy to come out with their info, and then you asked me what I did night one. To me that is very suspicious behavior.
It's a bit early for a vote, but rest assured that I will be looking you you hard and fast.
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Post by Michael Callahan on Jan 9, 2013 22:18:35 GMT -4
Day 2 ends... with NO LYNCH.
You have 30 hours from now (I overslept and don't want to be up again at 2AM to post a write-up) to get your night actions in.
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Post by Michael Callahan on Jan 11, 2013 10:16:06 GMT -4
On the rooftops, John McClane is using the phone wire to call the emergency services and announce the terrorists arrival to the local authorities who aren't taking him especially seriously.
John McClane: Mayday, Mayday! Anyone! Terrorists have seized Nakatomi Building and are holding 30 or more hostages! I say again--...
Once Hans, Karl, Theo and Takagi are alone in the office upstairs with the models, Hans sets about announcing the true intention of his diabolic plans.
Hans Gruber: Mr. Takagi, I'm not interested in your computer. I'm interested in the $640 million in negotiable bearer bonds in your vault.
Takagi's eyes go wide with disbelief, he thought these men were eco-terrorists looking to make a point.
Joseph Takagi: You want... money? What kind of terrorists are you?
Hans chuckles to himself, amused by Takagi's naivety.
Hans: Who said we were terrorists?
Hans idly plays with a handgun while Takagi shuffles uncomfortably in his seat.
Hans: The code key, please.
Takagi: It's useless to you! There's safeguards on our vault, and the code key is only one of them! You'll never get it open.
Hans lifts the gun and points it straight at the space between Takagi's eyes. At this range, with such a powerful gun, there'd be no survival
Hans: Then there's no reason not to tell it to us.
Watching from the sidelines, Theo and Karl are watching the scene unfold.
Theo: I told you...
Karl: It's not over...
Hans glares at both of them like a disappointed father would at his squabbling children then returns his attentions to Takagi.
Hans: This is too nice a suit to ruin, Mr. Takagi. I'm going to count to three. There will not be a four. Give me the code.
Hans cocks the gun, pulling the hammer back and locking a round into the chamber. There's no turning back now.
Takagi: I don't know it! Get on a god damn jet to Tokyo and ask the chairman! I'm telling you! You're just going to have to kill me –
Hans: Okay.
Hans's finger curls around the trigger, ready to blow Takagi's brain out but as it happens, this is Mafia and this iconic moment won't go ahead as planned. Takagi clenches his eyes together awaiting death only for machine gun fire erupting from the floor below to shatter the moment. Hans is visibly frustrated.
Hans: What on Earth is going on? Karl, investigate. Theo and I will be taking our hostage to the vault.
The four men leave and we cut to downstairs where in the construction zone floor that's currently being redecorated. A police car is parked outside with Sgt. Al Powell at the wheel, having just investigated Nakatomi upon hearing distress calls but discovers nothing. McClane clocks this and decides to throw the dead body of Marco out of the window and onto the car.
Sgt. Al Powell: JESUS CHRIST!
Franco, Tony and Uli start raining heavy automatic weapon fire down on a police car outside. Sgt. Al Powell panics and reverses his car as the machine guns rip holes into his squad car.
Sgt. Al Powell: One Adam Ten, under automatic rifle fire at Nakatomi! Requesting immediate backup and SWAT assistance!
McClane watching from above grins.
McClane: Welcome to the party, pal.
DAY TWO BEGINS
ALIVE PLAYERS
1. A.C. Smith
2. Billy Pepsi
3. Bryan Deas
4. Chaz Dillinger
5. Crown Jules
6. James V
7. KJE
8. Kurt Noble
9. Level One
10. Mark Mania
11. Reya Serra
12. Roy Speed
13. TJ
14. T-Marv
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Post by T-Marv on Jan 11, 2013 11:07:18 GMT -4
Guess that means no kill for the night. Victory for the town if you ask me, gives us a little more time to process things.
I wonder if the scum were role blocked, mcclane was role blocked, or the kill was prevented somehow or if the Scum simply didn't get their role in on time. No need to dwell on it, just curious.
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Post by Mark Mania on Jan 11, 2013 11:12:23 GMT -4
It doesn't look like there was any recruitment or kill. I'd have to assume that someone was roleblocked.
I want to see a few more people check in before I go further.
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